Where is the GOLD's minimum?

After NonFarmPayrollEverybody talks about the price of gold and wonder where it will be minimal. The yellow metal had the worst quarter in the last 45 years, going back to mid-2010 quotations. ounce price will collapse or will be an opportunity "Gold" for buyers?Almost 25% of the yellow metal lost in the quarter and 60% of the advance made in the heyday, 2009-2011, when the price ounce increased from 700 to over $ 1900. Without doubt, it is one of the darkest periods in history for gold.Major banks accuse eachother for creating this chaos. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisee have negatively revised their forecasts for 2013. The market realised for the first time in recent years that the Federal Reserve will print to infinity, real interest rates will rise, and gold will be less attractive.There are rumours that is less gold in the bank than the amount that they have sold it. If true, that means for the future of gold?Normally these  stories about gold should be ignored, because it comes from those who have an interest in the market. However, if banks had the opportunity to sell gold to other people would do it without hesitation. Can anyone believe that a bank would sell something that does not belong or is there? It would use the money to somewhere in the future and would not be punished, because it is prohibited by law. Some banks now pay cash or deferred delivery. We do not know whether it is true or not, perhaps we'll never know, but recent events support this scenario.On the other hand, investment funds are expected to increase demand globally and especially from China, which would purchase at this price up to 4,000 tons. People will say "why China buy so much Gold if the value will fall" and big players in the market will attract the audience, because in reality, the positions of hedge funds are selling at an unprecedented 240 tons or 80,000 contracts. In recent months, they say the big banks have made huge profits from selling speculative positions on gold futures market.Who is wrong? Who is right? It is the beginning of the end for gold or the beginning of a new "golden period"?
After the Fed chairman threw "Taper bomb" and after the data from the labor market shows a recovery of U.S. economy, gold could lead to $ 1,000 per ounce. It is an opportunity for buyers just under $ 1,000, the probability to be a minimum is higher.WHY? Sometimes, risk sentiment is the main factor of influence (global), other times, such as now, monetary policy (domestic). 

EURO and GBP vs. DOLLAR

The largest and most influential central banks in Europe tomorow will face market pressure for additional support: QE made in Europe. Bluff Draghi has done whatever possible and succed toinverse, temporarily, the downward trend of the European currency against the dollar to 1.20 to 1.40.

ECB will not move in this session, but it may surprise the market and would be a favorable time. The main weapon is not a central bank interest rate cut, but the ability to change the vision and future market expectations. Draghi may be neutral repeating the words in previous meetings, posponing the payday which would be good for  Euro on the short-term, but the economy, despite optimistic Retail Sales, continues to struggle in recession with unemployment rate setting negative records.

Euro decline indicates a dovish Draghi, an advocate of continued policy of relaxation in an attempt to lower long-term interest. Euro could breake decisive minimum of 1.30. However,  meeting could not change direction or medium term, but short term. So, the outlook remains bearish with minor correction options. Tomorrow's NFP may have a greater influence.

BOE meeting today is likely more interesting than  Draghi's, being the first for the new Governor Carney (eg BOC - Bank of Canada), who takes over from M.King. They will announce their intention to revive the British economy, but more QE may face opposition from the members. It remains to be seen whether President BOE will resist the temptation to add support for the economy in the first session (positive for pound) or play aggressively from the start (negative for pound). Like the EURUSD, GBPUSD is in a downtrend that can not be changed regardless the monetary policy meeting decisions. The only question is whether it will continue counter-trend started yesterday or ending it, leaving space between its maximum and the preceding minimum of 24 June (signal rapid decline).